The South Tahoe Realty Blog

Here is a word from Tahoe mortgage broker, Norm Hansen, on the future of interest rates:

Rates are still at an all-time low … but … we expect some changes in the 2nd quarter.

I have reported on the effective job the federal government has been doing in keeping rates low by buying mortgage backed securities … to the tune of $1.25 trillion.

That $1.25 trillion runs out at the end of March 2010 … which means if the other markets do not pick up the difference in purchasing, then rates will most likely increase. To what extent, we do not know. We do know the goverment is aware that these low rates have had a very positive impact on recovery and are sensitive to it. We await word if there will be further participation and/or impact from the goverment.

If you are rate sensitive to a refinance or a new purchase, a call to action may be prudent. As always, we like to take a positive approach … but this is something we do see on the horizon.

Norm Hansen
AmWest Mortgage
775.586.1130
nhansen@gbis.com

As the holder of a bachelor’s in mathematics, I mine for a lot of real estate statistics. The following numbers present a good reflection of what’s happening in the South Lake Tahoe real estate market. Since January 2009, median sale price has leveled. The bottom of the market is near.

The market as a whole has 9.1 months supply of inventory. A balanced market is traditionally defined by 5 to 7 months supply of inventory. Because we have a greater suppy than this, we are still in a buyer’s market. However, we are approaching balance. If the market is divided into price bands, some segments have reached balance and have even entered into a seller’s market. In the $0-$200,000 price band, only 2.0 month’s supply of inventory remain. In the $200,000-$300,000 price band, 4.5 month’s supply of inventory exists. These numbers suggest there is a seller’s market in these price bands, which is the case. Lower priced properties are seeing multiple offers and are often selling for more than their list price. If you are seeking a property in this price band, now is probably the time to buyer. The market bottom for these properties may already be in our rearview. A surplus of inventory in the higher price bands suggest that nicer homes will continue to lose value.

Here are a couple virtual tours that were created for my office. Click the links below to see details on these South Lake Tahoe properties.

3781 Lucinda Ct. - 4/4/2 - $1,595,000
1877 Delta Ave. - vacant land - $89,000

To see all my Tahoe real estate videos, click here. If you’re interested in these homes or any other Lake Tahoe property, please e-mail me at drew@southtahoehouses.com or call me at (530) 545-1831.

If video stops during playback, just press the pause button and wait a minute for the video to download.

Here and there I’ve been videoing property while previewing homes and holding open houses. I’ve posted these videos to my YouTube channel. Currently there are 17 videos on the channel. Click here to see the videos. It doesn’t take me long to do this, and I feel it provides a valuable resource to Tahoe home shoppers. I won’t leave any sold homes on the channel, and I’ll update it with a few new videos about once a month.

If you’d like to be updated any time I post new videos, I’d encourage you to subscribe to this blog’s e-mail updates on the right-hand side of the page. I’ll post updates on the blog any time new videos have been posted.

Also, if there are any properties you’d like to see video of, feel free to let me know. I can be reached at drew@southtahoehouses.com or at 530.545.1831. Some properties are harder to video than others because of occupants and stringent guidelines for access. However, I should be able to honor most requests.

It’s almost summer here in South Lake Tahoe, and while the temps aren’t too hot with this recent cold front, the real estate market is scorching. We haven’t seen buyer activity like this in years. I’ve seen several properties receive multiple, competing offers. They are oftentimes selling for more than list price. Things are getting crazy here and many of us real estate professionals are putting in long hours in order to keep up.

At the moment, there are 94 homes in escrow in South Lake Tahoe (We hit 100 last Friday.) We haven’t seen this many homes in escrow since July 2005, which was a month before the peak of the market. See the tables below for more statistics.

Our overall inventory is shrinking as well. Currently, there are 381 single-family residences for sale. Last year there were 414. The year before, 522. In May 2006, there were 424. With Tahoe homes reaching affordable prices and buyer confidence increasing, look for these trends to continue.

Speaking of prices, home prices have leveled off since the start of the year. I’ve checked the homes currently in escrow, and median sale price will continue to hold steady for at least the next couple months. Perhaps we are at the bottom of the market?? Statistics are increasingly pointing in that direction. A balanced market is traditionally defined by 5 to 7 months of inventory on the market. At 6.1 months of inventory, we have already reached that point in the under-$300,000 price band. We are quickly approaching that point in the $300,000-$400,000 price band. As inventory continues to decrease and sales increase, the statistics should catch up and begin to truly reflect how busy our market is.

A couple caveats …

Ninety-four homes in escrow today can’t be compared to 94 homes in escrow a few years ago. The reason for this is short sales. Short sales typically take longer to close than a normal escrow. Thus, with some homes sitting in escrow for long periods of time, this inflates the total. That said, however, only 15 short sale homes went into escrow over 45 days ago. Subtract these from our total and the 79 remaining homes in escrow still hasn’t been matched since September 2005, which was virtually the peak of the market.

In addition to this, the traditional definition of a balanced market, 5 to 7 months of inventory, may not apply in this market. Previous markets have not been affected by foreclosures like this. A new wave of foreclosures could drive prices down further. On the other hand, prices have leveled off for the last half year. And no one can argue that our shrinking inventory is a good sign of rebound.

All that said, now might be THE time to buy in South Lake Tahoe. And with another amazing Tahoe summer approaching, what better a time to come and start shopping!

Once again, all is quiet on the South Lake Tahoe foreclosure front. Not much has happened in the last two weeks.

I had the chance to drop by 489 Tahoe Keys Blvd. #69. I videoed while I was there. Click the link below to see it.

489 Tahoe Keys Blvd. #69 Video

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, please let me know at drew@southtahoehouses.com. If you are interested in property on this list or any property in South Lake Tahoe, e-mail me or call me at (530) 545-1831.

There is very little to report on South Lake Tahoe foreclosures at the moment. Our foreclosure list has dwindled to a mere 10 properties. Only 7 of these are single-family residences. A 90-day foreclosure moratorium was passed in late February. Thus, we should see a big wave of foreclosures hit the market later this month and in June when the moratorium is no longer in effect.

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, please let me know at drew@southtahoehouses.com. If you are interested in property on this list or any property in South Lake Tahoe, e-mail me or call me at (530) 545-1831.

There appears to be increased activity in all areas of the South Lake Tahoe real estate market. Foreclosure activity is definitely up. In 2008, there were 72 foreclosure sales. There have been 30 sales in 2009. This means we’re on pace for 120 foreclosure sales for this year, a 67% increase.

Foreclosure listings haven’t been able to keep up with buyer activity, however. There are only 16 single-family residences remaining on the foreclosure list. There are 59 single-family residences in escrow right now. Last month there were 39. Last year at this time there were 40. Our inventory is also down 5.7% from this time last year.

With the summer coming, interest rates at historic lows, and many homebuyer incentives, look for buyer activity to continue to increase. Future foreclosure lists may continue to be short lists!

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, please let me know at drew@southtahoehouses.com. If you are interested in property on this list or any property in South Lake Tahoe, e-mail me or call me at (530) 545-1831.

* The listing agent chose not to publish his or her listing to internet MLS searches.
** 1490 Seminole Dr. has been listed as a foreclosure since 8/21/2008. Days on Market was reset when a new agent took the listing.

It’s been a little while since the last South Lake Tahoe foreclosure list, but not too much has changed. A few properties went into escrow but then returned to the market. There were also a few price reductions. 1081 Bowers did not go to auction, as scheduled, and is now at $334,900 for a price per square foot of $138.

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, please let me know at drew@southtahoehouses.com. If you are interested in property on this list or any property in South Lake Tahoe, e-mail me or call me at (530) 545-1831.

* The listing agent chose not to publish his or her listing to internet MLS searches.
** 1490 Seminole Dr. has been listed as a foreclosure since 8/21/2008. Days on Market was reset when a new agent took the listing.

There hasn’t been much activity in the South Lake Tahoe foreclosure market over the last couple weeks. When 2680 Osborne Ave. was listed, it went into escrow within a few hours. That was a day before my last foreclosure list was published. It fell out of escrow and is a good buy at $225,000. See this very rough 2680 Osborne Ave. video for a better look at it.

If you’re interested in receiving the foreclosure lists by e-mail, please let me know at drew@southtahoehouses.com. If you are interested in property on this list or any property in South Lake Tahoe, e-mail me or call me at (530) 545-1831.

* The listing agent chose not to publish his or her listing to internet MLS searches.
** 1490 Seminole Dr. has been listed as a foreclosure since 8/21/2008. Days on Market was reset when a new agent took the listing.